" ZAKARIA: Well, Richard, let me ask you. You were talking in this piece, which is onforeign policy challenges for the next president, you spent a lot of time oneconomics and energy policy.
And you point out another amazing statistic, which is that, at current oilprices, the oil-consuming countries of the world are transferring every year tothe oil-producing countries of the world -- that is, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela,et cetera -- $2.2 trillion.
HOLBROOKE: At least.
ZAKARIA: It may actually be 2.5 or...
HOLBROOKE: I used the benchmark of $100 a barrel, because I didn't want to count the spike. Every day, about $1.3 billion from the U.S. alone to the oil- producing states. And there are some very bad actors in that. Jorge has just discussed one ofthem, Venezuela. We haven't mentioned Iran. Russia using its petro power to intimidate theWestern Europeans, to destabilize Georgia.
This transfer -- we all worry about price at the pump, the pain at the pump. Fine. That's a big political issue. But nobody is focusing on the fact that, if this goes on for five or 10 years, it will constitute the greatest transfer of wealth in history, from one group of nations to another.
And I don't believe in historical determinism, Fareed. I know you don't either. We're both optimists by nature, and we're both particularly optimists about America. But our growth from the 1880s on was fueled, literally, by cheap oil. And if this era comes to an end and we start transferring money, it isn't justgoing to be indoor ski slopes in Doha and crazy expenses of villas by Arab potentates. It's going to be petro power. And it will change the world.
If there's one law of history, it's that economic decline, more even than military strength, can weaken us. So, we're going to have to deal with this on many, many fronts, including energy diversification, conservation and so on. And the answer is not to openup offshore oil drilling, because that's a marginal aspect of this issue..."
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